{"id":93637,"date":"2024-10-31T11:48:22","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T09:48:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=93637"},"modified":"2024-10-31T11:48:41","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T09:48:41","slug":"us-pce-rates-for-september-in-the-epicenter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/zh\/us-pce-rates-for-september-in-the-epicenter\/","title":{"rendered":"US PCE rates for September in the epicenter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The USD edged lower against its counterparts yesterday as conflicting messages emerged from the financial data released. Ahead of tomorrow\u2019s release of the US employment report for October the ADP national employment figure for the same month, unexpectedly rose to 223k, easing market worries for the possible negative repercussions of the recent hurricanes on the US employment market, thus supporting the USD. On the flip side, the GDP advance rate for Q3 slowed down slightly if compared to Q2\u2019s final rate weighing on the USD. On a fundamental level, the uncertainty about the US elections remains high, yet some traders seem to be increasingly pricing in the possibility of Donald Trump getting elected. Today the market may focus on the September inflation test, as the core and headline PCE rates are to be released. The rates are expected to decelerate and if so could weigh on the USD as it would imply further easing of inflationary pressures in the US economy which in turn may allow the Fed to remain on its rate-cutting path.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"US Employment data tomorrow\" width=\"750\" height=\"422\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/J8WZqBh5R58?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Against the EUR, the USD relented some ground yesterday with EUR\/USD aiming for the 1.0890 (R1) resistance line. It seems\u00a0 as if a bullish movement is in a preparation mode, yet the RSI indicator despite correcting higher is still below the reading of 50, implying a residue of bearishness among market participants for EUR\/USD. For a bullish outlook we would require the pair to clearly break the 1.0890 (R1) resistance line, thus paving the way for the 1.1000 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see EUR\/USD reversing course, breaking the 1.0775 (S1) support line, opening the gates for the 1.0670 (S2) support base.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-boj-remains-on-hold-signals-readiness-for-more-hikes\"><strong>BoJ remains on hold signals readiness for more hikes<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Across the world JPY gained against the USD during today\u2019s Asian session. BoJ decided to maintain rates unchanged at 0.25% as was expected during today\u2019s Asian session and in its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boj.or.jp\/en\/mopo\/outlook\/gor2410a.pdf\">outlook for economic activity <\/a>stressed its readiness to hike rates further, should its economic projections be realised. Hence on a monetary policy level, BoJ\u2019s hawkish intentions seem to be maintained, a factor that could provide some support for JPY. On a more fundamental level the incumbent Finance Minister of Japan, Mr.Kato repeated warnings that authorities continue to keep a close eye on the FX market for unexpected speculative moves, practically swaying a threat for a possible market intervention over carry traders selling the Yen. Yet the political instability tends to continue to weigh on JPY providing a deeper uncertainty for JPY\u2019s outlook which could weigh on JPY.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ona technical level JPY gained some ground against the USD with USD\/JPY falling and aiming for the 152.00 (S1) support line. The pair in tis downward motion broke the upward trendline guiding it since the 21<sup>&nbsp;<\/sup> of October thus we are forced to switch our bullish outlook in favour of a sideways motion of the pair initially. On the other hand we note that the RSI indicator of the pair remains close to the reading of 70, implying the presence of a strong bullish sentiment of the market for the pair. Should the bulls regain control over the pair we may see USD\/JPY reversing today\u2019s losses, breaking and breaking the 155.20 (R1) resistance line. Should the\u00a0 bears extend their reach, we may see USD\/JPY breaking the 152.00 (S1) support line and take aim of the 149.40 (S2) support barrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-euro-zone-data-tend-to-support-the-common-currency\"><strong>Euro Zone data tend to support the common currency<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The macroeconomic outlook of the EUR area improved yesterday with the release of the preliminary GDP rates for Q3. Germany\u2019s GDP rate on a quarter on quarter level, escaped negative territory, allowing the economic powerhouse of the Euro Zone to avoid entering a technical recession. Yet the Euro Zone as a whole also showed an acceleration of economic growth in the past quarter, easing market worries somewhat, yet we note that growth tends to remain anemic for the area. Furthermore, inflation seems to have picked up in October for Germany and France and we expect this to be reflected on the Euro Zone as a whole, which in turn may provide some support for the common currency as it would moderate the market\u2019s dovish expectations for the ECB. It should be noted that ECB President Lagarde in her press conference after the release of the bank\u2019s last interest rate decision, had warned about low growth and a possible pick up of inflation in the last months of the year. Hence we may see the EUR being more supported on a macroeconomic and monetary level.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-australia-s-building-approvals-accelerate-china-s-economic-activity-improves\"><strong>Australia\u2019s building approvals accelerate, China\u2019s economic activity improves<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Aussie got some support during today\u2019s Asian session against the USD, probably also as a result of the economic data released. The building approvals growth rate accelerated beyond market expectations September implying and expansion of economic activity for Australia\u2019s construction sector, while the retail sales growth rate slowed down beyond market expectations implying an unwillingness on behalf of the average Australian consumer to actually spend more in the Australian economy. Yet another highlight for Aussie traders may have been the release of China\u2019s NBS PMI figures for October, with both the Services and manufacturing sector indicators showing expansion of economic activity in the current month. We are highlighting the release of the Caixin manufacturing PMI figure for October, due to be released in tomorrow\u2019s Asian session for a confirmation of the expansion of economic activity in the sector. A reading above 50 could be interpreted as a first positive signal in a long time, which could ease the pessimism for the outlook of the Chinese economy. Furthermore Aussie traders may keep also an eye out for Australia\u2019s PPI rates for Q3 and a possible acceleration could provide some support for AUD as it would imply stronger inflationary pressures at a producers level, and enhance RBA\u2019s hawkish stance. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-microsoft-meta-beat-wall-street-expectations-signal-increased-ai-investments\"><strong>Microsoft, Meta beat Wall Street expectations, signal increased AI investments<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We had the release of Meta\u2019s (#FB) and Microsoft\u2019s (#MSFT) earnings reports with figures beating market expectations, yet US stockmarkets fell yesterday and during today\u2019s Asian session<strong>. <\/strong>Reuters analysts highlight that both companies have announced increased capital spending on AI infrastructure, with special focus being on capacity, which in turn could threaten short term profitability, thus intensifying worries of investors. We expect that the limitation of resources in capacity could intensify the antagonism among big tech companies, thus making investment in AI even more expensive and start leading to a negative spiral. Hence the whole sector could come under a spell, given the importance placed by the market on AI and we highlight as the next possible targets of market bears, the earnings releases of Amazon and Apple later today in the after-market hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-worries-for-opec-s-production-hike-being-delayed\"><strong>Worries for OPEC\u2019s production hike being delayed<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices got a boost yesterday as EIA surprised the markets by reporting a drawdown of about half a million barrels in US oil inventories. The release practically corroborated API\u2019s release the previous day, which also reported a drawdown. Overall data on the ground of the US oil market seem to point towards a tightening of the US oil market as aggregated oil demand tend to surpass oil production levels. In addition to the tightening of the US oil market, Reuters reported that OPEC could delay hiking the oil production levels of member states beyond December, practically expanding the strain on the supply side of the international oil market, which in turn may also have a bullish effect on oil prices. Last but not least we would note that increased economic activity in the manufacturing sector of China, as implied by the release of October\u2019s NBS PMI figure, should it be also accompanied by a similar reading of Caixin manufacturing PMI and from the US an improvement of the ISM manufacturing PMI, could allow speculation for an improved oil demand outlook and also support oil prices, yet that remains to be seen. Last but not least we also note the conflict in the Middle East as a factor that could affect oil prices with a possible further escalation possibly having a bullish effect and vice versa.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-other-highlights-for-the-day\"><strong>\u4eca\u65e5\u5176\u4ed6\u4eae\u70b9:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In today\u2019s European session, we note the release of France\u2019s and the Eurozone\u2019s preliminary HICP rates for October, while from the US we get September\u2019s core and headline PCE rates as well as the initial jobless claims figure, while from Canada we get August\u2019s GDP rate. In tomorrow\u2019s Asian session, we get Japan\u2019s final manufacturing PMI figure for October, Australia\u2019s PPI rates for Q3 and China\u2019s Caixin manufacturing PMI figure for October.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-eur-usd-daily-chart\"><strong>\u6b27\u5143\/\u7f8e\u5143\u65e5\u7ebf\u56fe<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"452\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-143.png\" alt=\"support at one point zero seven seven five and resistance at one zero eight nine, direction sideways     \" class=\"wp-image-93638\" title=\"\u6b27\u5143\/\u7f8e\u51434\u5c0f\u65f6\u8d70\u52bf\u56fe\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 1.0775 (S1), 1.0670 (S2), 1.0530 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 1.0890 (R1), 1.1000 (R2), 1.1100 (R3) <strong><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-usd-jpy-daily-chart\"><strong>USD\/JPY Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"452\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-145.png\" alt=\"support at one hundred and fifty two and resistance at one hundred and fifty five point two, direction sideways     \" class=\"wp-image-93640\" title=\"usd-jpy-daily-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 152.00 (S1), 149.40 (S2), 146.00 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 155.20 (R1), 158.45 (R2), 161.90 (R3) <strong><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1278\" height=\"313\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-146.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-93642\" title=\"benchmark-31-10-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1002\" height=\"563\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-148.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-93644\" title=\"table-31-10-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1088\" height=\"723\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-147.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-93643\" title=\"morning-releases-31-10-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\"><i>\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u5bf9\u672c\u6587\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5e38\u89c4\u7591\u95ee\u6216\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u76f4\u63a5\u53d1\u9001\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6\u81f3\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u5730\u5740\u4e3a <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u514d\u8d23\u58f0\u660e:<br><i>\u672c\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\u6216\u6295\u8d44\u63a8\u8350, \u800c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8425\u9500\u4f20\u64ad. IronFX \u5bf9\u672c\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u6216\u8d85\u94fe\u63a5\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u6570\u636e\u6216\u4fe1\u606f\u6982\u4e0d\u8d1f\u8d23.<\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The USD edged lower against its counterparts yesterday as conflicting messages emerged from the financial data released. Ahead of tomorrow\u2019s<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-93637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forex blog - IronFX\u2122 | The Global Leader In Online Trading<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This report is about to discuss recent issues in the financial markets as well as comment on possible further possible developments, all being on a fundamental level, provide a calendar with upcoming financial releases and conclude with a technical analysis of two trading instruments to compliment the proceeding fundamental analysis.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93637\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US PCE rates for September in the epicenter\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This report is about to discuss recent issues in the financial markets as well as comment on possible further possible developments, all being on a fundamental level, provide a calendar with upcoming financial releases and conclude with a technical analysis of two trading instruments to compliment the proceeding fundamental analysis.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/zh\/us-pce-rates-for-september-in-the-epicenter\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-31T09:48:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-31T09:48:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"IronFX Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/zh\\\/us-pce-rates-for-september-in-the-epicenter\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/zh\\\/us-pce-rates-for-september-in-the-epicenter\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"IronFX Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/zh\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6727476356d10030d1564b38f6e699b1\"},\"headline\":\"US PCE rates for September in the epicenter\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-10-31T09:48:22+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-31T09:48:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/zh\\\/us-pce-rates-for-september-in-the-epicenter\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1557,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/zh\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/zh\\\/us-pce-rates-for-september-in-the-epicenter\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/zh\\\/us-pce-rates-for-september-in-the-epicenter\\\/\",\"name\":\"Forex blog - 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