Low Volatility Ahead of July’s US CPI Release

昨天美元小幅走高，但在市场相当平静的情况下整体呈横盘走势的情况仍保持不变. 市场的注意力越来越多地转向7月份美国消费物价指数率的发布, 预计该情况将在同月份美国就业报告发布后实现. 在货币方面，我们注意到费城联储主席Harker 倾向暗示央行可能已经达到利率峰值，这将符合市场预期.

USD/CAD corrected lower volatility yesterday, breaking below the 1.3450 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. The RSI indicator also corrected lower yet remained above the cut-off point of 50 and the price action respected the upward trendline, yet seems about to put it to the test. Should the upward trendline be clearly broken signaling an interruption of the upward movement we would abandon our current bullish outlook. For the bulls to maintain control over the pair, USD/CAD has to break the 1.3450 (R1) resistance line once again and aim for the 1.3565 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the prementioned upward trendline but also the 1.3335 (S1) support level, which held its ground on the 4th of August, with the next possible target for the bears being set at the 1.3230 (S2) support barrier.

另一方面, 美国股市小幅走低，因为 Moody在周一晚些时候下调了一些中型银行的评级并警告其可能还会下调一些美国大型银行的评级. 该信用评级机构指出银行业可能存在融资风险和盈利能力下降. 因此有理由下调评级, 此外，Moody’将美国11家主要银行的前景展望改为悲观. 我们注意到，最近硅谷银行和Signature银行的倒闭加剧了市场对该市场行业的不确定性, 导致信用评级机构的评估更加保守. 总的来说, 该问题趋向影响市场情绪并迫使三大美国主要股指道琼斯, 标普500 和纳斯达克指数小幅走低.

Dow Jones seems to maintain a rangebound movement between the 35735 (R1) resistance line and the 34970 (S1) support line. We expect the pair to remain in a sideways motion given that the prementioned levels are respected, although short-term volatility could still generate brief deviations within the range. The RSI remains above the reading of 50 and for the time being does not imply a strong bullish sentiment that may allow the sideways motion to be maintained. Should the bulls take over, we may see the index breaking the 35735 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 36445 (R2) level. Should the bears be in charge, we may see the index breaking the 34970 (S1) support line and aim for the 34320 (S2) level. It should be noted that the market sentiment for the European banking sector also plummeted yesterday as Italy passed a once-off 40% tax on unexpected gains Italian banks have recently made. The news had a negative impact on European stock markets, adding further volatility to regional indices as the announcement seemed to take investors by surprise and practically opens the door for other major economies within the Eurozone to follow that path.