外汇交易 | IronFX 外汇与差价合约平台 https://IRONFX_DOMAIN/zh/blog/tag/covid-19/feed/ "Our Introducing Brokers program offers competitive conditions tailored to our partners' needs. Become an IB and enjoy the highest market rebates." Mon, 07 Apr 2025 12:07:17 +0000 zh-Hans hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0.2 /wp-content/uploads/2021/05/fav.png 外汇交易 | IronFX 外汇与差价合约平台 https://IRONFX_DOMAIN/zh/blog/tag/covid-19/feed/ 32 32 XAU/USD: Price action limited yet fundamental thrive https://www.smartchinaeducation.com/zh/xau-usd-price-action-limited-yet-fundamental-thrive/ Tue, 16 Feb 2021 08:25:00 +0000 https://ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net/?post_type=forex-blog&p=13225 Gold moved higher in the previous week, practically breaking...

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Gold moved higher in the previous week, practically breaking the downward momentum that was formed since late January. Even though the past week could have been an awakening for the Gold buyers, the trend has not changed and prices seem to have remained rather steady. In this report we will be overviewing some fundamental matters currently in the Gold markets focus, while at the end our technical analysis will provide a clear examination of the price action.

The most important matter currently surrounding not only the Gold market but also the global economy, is the developments on the US Sino negotiation front. At the moment we are observing a blame game between the two largest economies of the world. The US has claimed that China has lacked transparency of information to the world over the Covid-19 outbreak. On the other hand, China in a report by its embassy in the US claimed the U.S. has severely undermined multilateral institutions, including the WHO, and gravely damaged international cooperation on Covid-19. The tensions have escalated since the past weeks also when Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping had a telephone call regarding unfair economic practices and other unresolved issues. We have not observed direct reaction on Gold’s price yet, but in our opinion the tensions have the potential of lifting Gold’s price higher. Back in 2019 when Gold’s price started surging to new yearly high prices, most of the markets attention was upon the trade war between US and China. Thus history is evidence that Gold traders tend to respond if tensions are to increase further.

Furthermore, on Monday a rocket attack was performed on the airport in the Northern Iraqi city of Erbil. Tensions in the Middle East even though ongoing, have not made headlines for some time now making the matter extremely serious. According to reports the attack was aimed at a US military coalition. Then again, the matter had no significant impact on Gold’s price. Yet, military actions especially in the Middle East, could lead to further tensions that could energize Gold traders accordingly.

As per the US economic front, US inflation data released in the previous week did not impress traders significantly while the reaction was felt on Gold’s price. Gold is usually an investment used to counter Inflation. On the day, Gold’s price did move higher while the USD had already been moving lower. Traditionally, investors flock to gold when considering weak inflation but due to the covid-19 circumstances being in motion, Investors reaction may have been mild. Moreover, the largest economies around the world are depending on the ongoing vaccination in order to ease lockdown measures. Easing lockdown measures is the path to further re opening most parts of the economy and restarting the global economic engine. However, Gold traders maybe critical of the current vaccination process that seems to be delaying.

In the following days a rather packed economic calendar seems to be on the markets agenda giving Gold traders new trade openings and opportunities. On the 17th we get the US Retail Sales and Industrial Production for January and the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. While on the 19th we get the Preliminary PMI US Markit Manufacturing and Services figures for February.

技术分析

XAU/USD 4 hour chart

xau-usd-16-02-2021-chart for gold market analysis

In the most recent sessions Gold has traded between our (R1) 1835 resistance level and our (S1) 1810 support barrier. In case traders are in favour of a buying momentum, we could see Gold’s price initially engaging the (R1) 1835 resistance level. If the bullish sentiment is prolonged then the (R2) 1855 level could also become a target, while the (R3) 1875 line stands even higher and could be of particular interest for the bulls as it is the highest level reached since the 8th of January. However, as in our opinion Gold continues to be in a sideways motion with bearish tendencies, a possible drop below the (S1) 1810 support barrier could prepare the ground for the (S2) 1785 barrier to be tested. Please not the (S2) 1785 barrier is the lowest level reached by Gold since December 2020, making it a challenge for the bears. Finally the activity of the RSI indicator below our chart has been between the 70 and 30 line for the past weeks implying some ambiguity among traders.

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How was China able to contain the covid-19? https://www.smartchinaeducation.com/zh/how-was-china-able-to-contain-the-covid-19/ Mon, 30 Nov 2020 13:18:21 +0000 https://ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net/?post_type=forex-blog&p=12770 After almost one year since the first covid-19 cases...

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After almost one year since the first covid-19 cases where announced, the planet is still stuck with a large pandemic and most authorities are still unable to set the virus under control. However and very surprisingly, some countries have managed to reduce new cases to minimal levels, while others continue to see a steady increase. According to numbers, China is among the very few nations that has managed to keep the virus spreading on the decline. The happening tends to raise various questions regarding China’s methods that have contributed to this achievement and this report aims to investigate how the mainland’s response differs from other large countries. Overall our aim is to create awareness on the matter.

First of all we must start by noting that various important officials from the World Health Organization (WHO) have directly congratulated China and its health workers, for the splendid job they have done to control the virus outspread. This is solid evidence that WHO has taken in mind the global circumstances of the virus, has noted other countries response to the matter and has made comparisons which confirmed that China’s response is very accurate. Also countries like the US, India, Brazil and the UK, have populations that are significantly lower than China’s, yet have registered millions of infected cases. China on the other hand, has managed to keep the number nearby 100K which implies that the measures that were taken, had been strategic and can be studied or even copied by others.

Looking into China’s past can help us identify how the nation was able to quickly adapt to the circumstances of the virus. Back in 2003 a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) respiratory disease was identified in China and spread to 4 other countries according to WHO. Even though the virus did not cause a global pandemic at the time, it forced the Chinese to create awareness over such diseases and the possible health impact on the society. Once the first covid-19 cases were identified back in December 2019 in Wuhan, the Chinese were able to identify its symptoms and took notice of the fast virus spread. On the last days of 2019, the Chinese had officially announced the detection and named the novel coronavirus as an official public health threat. After the official announcement of the virus, a number of immediate measures was announced in the following days. Wuhan was placed under lockdown and travel restrictions were imposed as a first attempt to isolate the virus.

Inside Wuhan, citizens could not use public transportation as it was set out of service. The measures were soon imposed on other cities of the Hubei province of which Wuhan belongs to. Furthermore, schools were suspended and children were left at home with their families. Also, aggressive measures like only allowing one member of each family to leave the house for necessary purposes like shopping or services reasons were implemented. The idea to reduce citizen movement to minimal levels was very much the game plan of the Chinese authorities and was very well understood by the people. These were not measures imposed as a way to spread fear in people and force them to stay home, as some European citizens have viewed them. These were measures to reduce the spread of the virus and protect the people. There is a very different viewpoint in the pre mentioned statements. In general, following up on these measures could be very challenging, especially for the citizens of Wuhan that were placed in a lockdown for 76 days in a row.

Yet, people followed authorities’ orders working towards a common goal and succeeded. In the meantime China acted in great speed to setup rapid testing points. Rapid tests in Wuhan specifically brought out all the virus carriers and placed thousands on quarantine, with special cases being transferred to the hospital. In a matter of one month, approximately 9 million people were tested, possibly dragging out of the dark thousands of asymptomatic cases that could have potentially spread the virus even further, without the knowledge of testing positive. The extensive testing is something that the Chinese acted upon with lighting speed and is considered as the biggest contributor of saving lives and people from covid-19. Further support to keeping a lid on the virus outbreak, was how the Chinese turned stadiums and other large buildings into hospitals. At these buildings, patients were able to isolate themselves protecting their families from being exposed to the virus by their presence.

Once rapid testing was in place and people with even the slightest of symptoms could find out if positive or not, the Chinese made another important announcement. They announced the wide adoption of mask wearing in public. As China has a huge manufacturing sector, it managed to produce large amounts of masks as they became mandatory for all people at all times outside their home. Even as months past and the virus started making its way in other continents the adoption of masks was not strictly imposed by many countries. Especially in the US, mask usage was not recommended which may have led to a mass spreading of the virus. In general, there was a lack of clarity over the use of masks and as time progressed, more governments realized that masks were in fact important yet cases had already surged dramatically in the US, Europe and even wider Asia.

In addition, other important mistakes in various countries involved allowing large crowds of people coming together for entertainment purposes. According to an article by the Lancet Public Health, 150,000 people attended a horse racing event in the UK, just days before the country announced a full lockdown in March. Also in the US and specifically South Dakota, over 400,000 people attended a motorcycle event during the summer months. These happenings were crucial mistakes that may have boosted the number of new cases by thousands. Even as these countries had taken notice of the virus spread, they seemed naive in their actions and allowed for the absurd to happen.

As a closure, we must note that the Chinese displayed a very different approach to dealing with the virus. In our opinion, the biggest difference had been their attitude towards the matter. First they had shown readiness to deal with such a problem which is rather remarkable. We say remarkable because they had dealt with it somewhat terribly in the past and managed to do a lot better in the present. Most countries around the world had already seen the signs that the virus was spreading but did not prepare for it accordingly. Also, some governments and individuals around the world did not take the virus seriously and falsely believed that this was a conspiracy theory to control humanity. Some important figures around the world have tested positive since then, eventually making a lot of other people believe the situation of the virus is very dangerous and their response is critical. Yet, we would like to stand to two striking characteristics that the Chinese have shown, that in our opinion separate them from many other populations.

First the willingness to stay disciplined to the rules and measures imposed from the government. The action shows a high degree of belief in authorities thus promotes unity and stability. This discipline was not displayed in European countries (Italy and Spain) and they had to feel the negative impact on public health and eventually the economy. Second, was their willingness to suffer for the greater good of the society. People were deprived of their personal freedom, yet followed the orders, and protected one another. They displayed patience and understanding as they saw their freedom but also their jobs being threatened for over two months. As a result, the Chinese have managed to drive the spread at very low levels for months and are currently the only economy to close 2020 in growth. They managed this due to their adaptability to circumstances. Other countries will see their economies stabilizing or even improving as we move into the next year but controlling the virus could remain a challenging task. Can we learn from the Chinese response? Do we need to study there reaction and use their methods to our advantage?

如果您对本文有任何常规疑问或意见,请直接发送电子邮件至我们的研究团队,地址为 research_team@ironfx.com  

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COVID Black Friday and the holiday season https://www.smartchinaeducation.com/zh/covid-black-friday-and-the-holiday-season/ Mon, 23 Nov 2020 15:55:00 +0000 https://ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net/?post_type=forex-blog&p=12773 Black Friday has traditionally been considered a great day...

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Black Friday has traditionally been considered a great day for both consumers and companies. This is a great day because of the fact that it is among the very few days of the year that both buyers and sellers have the opportunity to benefit from each other simultaneously. Black Friday can also be one of the busiest shopping days of the year, as it follows the Thanksgiving holiday but also because it kicks off the holiday season. From the Black Friday Holiday all the way until the closing of the year, the sales that take place and the overall performance of the retailers plays a vital role for the economy in total. Yet the difference, due to the fact that this year has been specifically challenging for the economy, a closer look into the current circumstances will be provided through this report.

First, we could start by noting that in the past consecutive years there has been a tremendous increase in shoppers participating in this event. It is estimated that, in 2019 over 80 million people shopped on Black Friday in the US, while a figure over 180 million people had shopped for the period Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. According to the past years, figures were expected to increase and for the trend to continue. However, at the moment the question in everyone’s mind is, what will be the consumer’s reaction this year with the ongoing pandemic affecting the economy’s performance? Black Friday in most of the countries of the world, has been an event that consumers would look forward to physically going down to the shops and spending most of their hours there. The main idea was going walking or driving from store to store and finding deals that were attractive, most probably at a very good prices. The goal of the specific day from a consumer’s perspective is to save as much money as possible. This is achieved by buying low-priced goods that in other circumstances would be more expensive. From the retailer’s perspective, the goal is to increase sales while providing products at reasonable prices enabling for a small or medium profit. This could be achieved by setting specific products in demand, at a larger discount price or selling products that were considered out dated and could have turned obsolete. There is a mixture of ways that retailers can provide very good prices to consumers and at the same time make profits for their own advantage. This is in most cases a win-win situation and that’s the reason the event is tracked globally and in some cases has broken outside the retail sector. Most stores from different industries are now finding ways to participate in the event and gain attraction.

Now, as the coronavirus pandemic is still very active globally and with an increase in new cases being announced on a daily basis, dark clouds are gathering over the event. A lot of people are following the measures announced by their respected governments or local authorities and have been home for most of the past couple of months. The pandemic has forced individuals to stay away from large groups of people, due to the fact that risks of coming face to face with an infected person increase. Some people are also very irresponsible in public places and may not be wearing a mask thus consumers may feel discouraged to go out. Most of the consumers have in mind the fact that the speed of the spread of the virus has increased tremendously as the winter season gets closer. Consumers are also somewhat affected and even scared by all the headlines in the media surrounding the matter and the holiday season is expected to be very different from what we have experienced in the past. In a way, we could say that consumers are already prepared not to attend this major event. However, there is one major difference compared to last year which is in favor of the retailers and the shop owners in general. After the harsh lockdowns that most of the world faced back in the spring months of the current year, businesses and retailers had the opportunity to further develop their online services as well as delivery services. The first lockdowns were a good test for the companies that had already built online infrastructure and we could say that from that period until the present, many other companies have managed to improve or create their own. In our opinion, online retailers are about to see increased numbers of orders in the next days, as well as revenue.

Companies like Amazon and Walmart which are classic large US retailers could get most of the attention during the Thanksgiving to the Cyber Monday period. We base this opinion, on the impressive performance they’ve had so far in 2020 during the pandemic, but also due to the fact that they have a large product base that enables them to provide an increased number of offers. Let’s not forget that consumers will not be required to leave their home to put in the orders as they will be saved by the use of their laptop and a few clicks. On the contrary, some analysts believe that the online services will not produce the same buzz of the previous years, as online sales may not be comparable to the Black Friday excitement feeling, of being at the shop and seeing the product physically. This could have a very negative impact on smaller retailers that have been patiently awaiting the holiday season for revenue that will help them survive. If the smaller businesses do not get some money, they could be going bankrupt in the final days of the year. This could further impact the economy as more people will be unemployed and growth could be capped.

However, as we cannot predict what will happen with 100% accuracy, it would be wise to allow for many scenarios to play out. It will be very interesting to see how consumers will react to the event, as this could be a forewarning of what could follow in the following weeks. In this case, the holiday season could be affected accordingly. This is also the reason why this year’s black Friday is so important for the economy. So far in the current year, consumers have not shown they are willing to overspend during the pandemic. Numbers confirm that consumer confidence has not been at its highest. Consumers are mostly focused on preserving their wealth, rather than spending it, as unemployment has risen tremendously especially in the US but also in other countries. If the negative effects on the economy are spread into 2021, then the trend of spending less money compared to previous years, could persist. We could also add that, consumers may have already acquired items during the lockdown measures in spring, which under other circumstances would be buying on black Friday. This could have a negative effect on the retail performance of black Friday for the economy.

In addition, the uncertainty over the further performance of the economy is felt on a very different front also. As a final note, with the election of the new US President Joe Biden, some analysts predict that investors may be forced to change their plans due to the economic actions his administration will take in the future.

如果您对本文有任何常规疑问或意见,请直接发送电子邮件至我们的研究团队,地址为 research_team@ironfx.com  

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