SVB暴跌影响了市场

继美联储主席Powell发表讲话后，由于投资者急于评估其影响的系统性风险，SVB暴跌后美元遭受重创,，逆转了走势并抹去任何收益. 周五非农就业人数数据报告显示美国劳务市场仍然强劲，创造了31.1万个就业岗位,高于20.5万的预期, 但失业率升至3.6%, 高于3.4%的市场共识. 更重要的是,按历史标准，该比率被认为是低的. 尽管就业报告的结果本可以合理地让市场放心，美联储将继续进行通胀战，但SVB的暴跌导致市场迅速、彻底地否定了3月会议上调50个基点的假设，将可能性逆转至美联储主席鲍威尔讲话前的水平.

目前FFF 显示美联储加息25个基点的可能性占 92%, 而余下的则认为不加息. 毫不奇怪，黄金充分利用了美元的下跌，并吸引了陷入困境的投资者的大量资金流入，他们权衡了SVB后果全面蔓延的可能性. 美国股市本周以大幅下跌收盘, 然而，在今天市场交易时段前，所有三大主要股指均迅速走高, 这得益于财政部，美联储和FDIC 在周末发表的令人欣慰的评论, 即SVB 储户将在今天周一支取他们的存款.

今日其他亮点:

今天无主要新闻发布

本周

On Tuesday the key event for the day is the US yoy & mom CPI rates for February, alongside the Core CPI’s for the same period. We also note UK’s ILO Unemployment rate and Employment Change for January (HMRC Payrolls for February) and Canada’s Manufacturing Sales for January. On Wednesday the crucial event for the day is the US’s Retail Sales for February and the Final PPI Demand rate. We also note the release of BOJ’s meeting minutes for January, China’s

Industrial Output and Retail Sales for February, the French Final HICP rate for February, alongside Eurozone’s Industrial Production for January and New Zealand’s GDP rate for Q4. On Thursday the main event is ECB’s interest rate decision and ECB’s President Lagarde speech after the March meeting. We also highlight Japan’s Exports and Imports rates alongside Australia’s Employment and Unemployment Rate, all for the month of February. We also note release of the US weekly initial jobless claims figure and the Philly Fed Business Index for March. On Friday we highlight Eurozone’s Final HICP print, Canada’s Producer Prices and the US Industrial Production rate all the month of February alongside the preliminary University of Michigan’s Sentiment and Expectations indices for March.