{"id":87187,"date":"2024-07-01T11:35:29","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T08:35:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=87187"},"modified":"2024-07-01T16:21:19","modified_gmt":"2024-07-01T13:21:19","slug":"france-enters-long-political-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/vi\/france-enters-long-political-week\/","title":{"rendered":"France enters long political week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The common currency jumped in today\u2019s Asian session against the USD, the GBP and the JPY, in a sign of wider strength for the EUR. The results of the first round of the French elections brought the far right in the driver\u2019s seat,&nbsp; yet the market may have been prepared for Marine Le Pen\u2019s party to win the first round by a wider margin and given that it was not realized the single currency, was allowed to rise. We expect political uncertainty to be maintained in France which under certain circumstances may have an adverse effect on the EUR. Further more, we highlight the release of Germany\u2019s preliminary HICP rates for June and a possible deceleration of the rate for the past month could enhance market expectations for the ECB to proceed with two more rate cuts this year and thus weigh on the common currency.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Germany&#039;s preliminary HICP rate for June to be released\" width=\"750\" height=\"422\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YuZzUGoSVBI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>EUR\/USD jumped during today\u2019s Asian session, breaking the 1.0740 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. The pair\u2019s bullish tendencies seem to be emerging, while at the same time we note that the RSI indicator has reached the reading of 50, implying that any bearish sentiment has faded away. Should the bulls maintain control over the pair, we may see EUR\/USD aiming if not breaking the 1.0890 (R1) resistance line. On the flip side should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the 1.0740 (S1) support line and setting in its sights the 1.0615 (S2) support level.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aussie traders on the other hand, are expected to keep a close eye on the release of RBA\u2019s last meeting minutes during tomorrow\u2019s&nbsp; Asian session. Should the bank\u2019s minutes show that RBA policymakers maintain a strong, confident, hawkish stance, we may see the Aussie getting some support.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AUD\/USD edged higher on Friday, yet overall the movement of the pair does not seem willing to escape the boundaries set by the 0.6715 (R1) resistance line and the 0.6575 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain our bias for the sideways motion to continue between the prementioned levels. The Bollinger bands seem to have narrowed, implying lower volatility that could allow the sideways movement to continue, while the RSI indicator despite slightly rising above the reading of 50 is still unconvincing regarding any bullish tendencies of the market. Should buyers dictate the pair\u2019s direction, we may see it breaking the 0.6715 (R1) resistance line and aiming for the 0.6870 (R2) resistance level. Should a selling interest be expressed by the market, we may see the pair breaking the 0.6575 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6445 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-other-highlights-for-the-day\"><strong>Other highlights for the day<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Today we note the release of the US the ISM manufacturing PMI figure for June and a possible rise of the indicator\u2019s reading could provide some support for the USD, especially if it rises above the reading of 50, implying expansion of economic activity. On the monetary front we note today ECB President Christine Lagarde\u2019s speech while during tomorrow\u2019s Asian session RBA is to release the minutes of the June meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>As for the rest of the week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On Tuesday we get the Eurozone\u2019s preliminary HICP rate for June, followed by Canada\u2019s manufacturing PMI figure for June and the US JOLTS Job openings figure for May. On Wednesday, we get Australia\u2019s building approvals figure and Retail sales rate both for May, Turkey\u2019s CPI rate for June, the Eurozone\u2019s final composite PMI figure, the UK final services PMI and the US ADP employment figure all for June and the US weekly initial jobless claims figure, Canada\u2019s trade balance figure and the US factory orders rate both for May, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI figure for June and later we get the Fed\u2019s last meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get Germany\u2019s industrial orders rate for May, Switzerland\u2019s CPI rate for June. On Friday, we get Japan\u2019s household spending rate and Germany\u2019s Industrial order rate both for May. Furthermore, we get the UK\u2019s Halifax house prices figure for June, Sweden\u2019s GDP rate for May, the US Employment data for June and Canada\u2019s employment data for June as well. <strong><em>Calendar follows<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>EUR\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"452\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image.png\" alt=\"support at one point zero seven four and resistance at one point zero eight nine, direction upwards  \" class=\"wp-image-87190\" title=\"eur-usd-daily-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 1.0740 (S1), 1.0615 (S2), 1.0450 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 1.0890 (R1), 1.1010 (R2), 1.1140 (R3) <strong><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>AUD\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"452\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-1.png\" alt=\"support at zero point six five seven five and resistance at zero point six seven one five, direction sideways \" class=\"wp-image-87192\" title=\"aud-usd-daily-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 0.6575 (S1), 0.6445 (S2), 0.6285 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 0.6715 (R1), 0.6870 (R2), 0.7030 (R3) <strong><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1998\" height=\"486\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-87193\" title=\"benchmark-01-07-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-87196\" style=\"width:819px;height:478px\" width=\"819\" height=\"478\" title=\"table-01-07-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1737\" height=\"883\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-87198\" title=\"morning-releases-01-07-2024\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\" target=\"_self\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The common currency jumped in today\u2019s Asian session against the USD, the GBP and the JPY, in a sign of<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>France enters long political week<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"USD rises as speculation grows that the Fed will keep rates high. 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