{"id":80223,"date":"2024-04-09T15:15:17","date_gmt":"2024-04-09T12:15:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=80223"},"modified":"2024-04-09T15:15:18","modified_gmt":"2024-04-09T12:15:18","slug":"gold-outlook-prints-new-all-time-high-with-a-bullish-appetite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/vi\/gold-outlook-prints-new-all-time-high-with-a-bullish-appetite\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Prints new all-time high with a bullish appetite"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price has reached new record highs yesterday at $2353 per ounce, since our last report<\/a>. Today we are to discuss the main factors which could affect gold\u2019s price fundamentally and conclude the report with a technical analysis of Gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial data and the Fed\u2019s meeting minutes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Given the negative, yet currently asymmetric, correlation of the USD with gold\u2019s price, we still see the case for a possible strengthening of the greenback to weigh on gold\u2019s price and vice versa. The release of the US employment report for March came in hotter than expected. The data tended to highlight the resilience of the US employment market and seem to provide some leeway for the Fed to maintain rates high for longer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet the market quickly shook off any effect and it\u2019s characteristic that Gold\u2019s price was allowed to ascend higher for the day. Hence we highlight the release of the Fed\u2019s March meeting minutes on Wednesday. Should the document show that the Fed policymakers are hesitant to start cutting rates it could provide some support for the USD and at the same time also weigh on gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also the release of the US CPI rates for March \u00a0on Wednesday may be the next big test for gold\u2019s price and a possible failure of the rates to slow down or even a possible acceleration could add pressure on the Fed to keep rates high for longer and thus provide some support for the USD and weigh on gold\u2019s price.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US yields on the rise<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Also please note the competitive nature of US bonds with gold as safe haven instruments. US bond yields are at higher levels since our last gold report, which should normally be weighing on gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prementioned behavior of US yields can be observed for the two year, five year , seven year and the ten year US bonds, in a sign that the attractiveness of US bonds is falling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the decoupling of US bond yields and gold\u2019s price, should US yields continue to be on the rise in the coming week, we may see investors\u2019 attention turning away from gold as the precious metal is non-interest bearing thus clipping gold\u2019s gains if not setting its price under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitical uncertainty and speculative buying<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At the same time we note that geopolitical uncertainty remains high as tensions rise. In the Gaza war we note the expectations for a possible counterstrike of Iran after Israel hit its embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing six persons. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war in Ukraine seems to have taken a turn in Russia\u2019s\u00a0 favor as its nature of attrition seems to allow the military superpower to have a better chance of winning it. In the South China Sea, worries for China seem to be rising and tensions between China and the US seem about to escalate further. Also tensions in the LatAm area, may escalate further in the coming week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence we may see uncertainty in the market rising even further, which in turn may provide some support for gold. We also note that the rise of gold\u2019s price may have been instigated by a band wagon effect with speculative buying being on the rise thus providing support for the precious metal\u2019s price like a self-fulfilling prophecy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramp up of central bank gold buying<\/strong> \u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Also central banks are reported to continue keeping gold purchases at high levels hence central bank gold buying is emerging as a key driver of gold\u2019s price. Characteristically China\u2019s central bank (PBoC) added gold to its reserves for the 17th month in a row in March according to Wall Street Journal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also other central banks are reported to increase their gold reserves and should that tendency be maintained we may see gold\u2019s price getting further support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold: Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD Daily Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"XAUUSD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n