{"id":64824,"date":"2023-06-21T15:00:19","date_gmt":"2023-06-21T12:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=64824"},"modified":"2024-08-26T11:43:29","modified_gmt":"2024-08-26T08:43:29","slug":"equities-report-equity-bulls-take-a-break","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/vi\/equities-report-equity-bulls-take-a-break\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: Equity bulls take a break"},"content":{"rendered":"

US<\/strong> stock<\/strong> markets<\/strong> tended to remain relatively<\/strong> unchanged<\/strong> in the past few days, maybe even edged a bit lower<\/strong>. We saw that the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> hawkish<\/strong> stance,<\/strong> despite skipping<\/strong> a rate<\/strong> hike<\/strong> in the past meeting<\/strong> had little<\/strong> effect<\/strong> on US<\/strong> stockmarkets<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to present the recent c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/strong> v\u00e0 economic<\/strong> news<\/strong> releases<\/strong> that impacted the US<\/strong> stock<\/strong> markets<\/strong>, look ahead at the upcoming<\/strong> s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n<\/strong> that could affect their performance<\/strong> and conclude with a k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong> analysis<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed\u2019s interest rate decision to remain on hold<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Fed<\/strong> last Wednesday<\/strong> decided to remain on hold<\/strong> as was widely anticipated<\/strong>. Furthermore, Fed<\/strong> Chair<\/strong> Powell<\/strong> reiterated on numerous occasions<\/strong> that despite remaining on hold<\/strong>, this does not mean that the Fed<\/strong> is done<\/strong> with hiking interest rates<\/strong>, thus leaving the door open<\/strong> for future<\/strong> rate hikes<\/strong>. Characteristically he also stated that rate cuts<\/strong> are \u201ca few years out\u201d which contradicted market expectations<\/strong> for the bank to proceed<\/strong> with rate cuts<\/strong> by the end<\/strong> of the year<\/strong>. Interestingly, the Dot plot<\/strong> moved higher<\/strong> released<\/strong> after the FOMC<\/strong> interest<\/strong> rate<\/strong> decision<\/strong>, with Fed policymakers<\/strong> now anticipating<\/strong> the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> terminal rate<\/strong> to be higher<\/strong> than what was previously<\/strong> anticipated<\/strong> with the median rate<\/strong> by the end<\/strong> of the year<\/strong> now being 5.6%<\/strong>, which would imply that the bank<\/strong> has still to deliver<\/strong> two more rate<\/strong> hikes<\/strong> before year\u2019s end and before pausing<\/strong> its rate<\/strong> hiking<\/strong> path<\/strong>. We would also like to highlight<\/strong> that in the banks\u2019<\/strong> projections<\/strong>, the possibility of a recession<\/strong> in the US<\/strong> economy<\/strong> seems to have been reduced<\/strong>, which in turn may<\/strong> provide some support<\/strong> for US stock markets<\/strong>. Overall though and for the time being we expect the bank<\/strong> to continue<\/strong> to lean<\/strong> on the hawkish<\/strong> side<\/strong> a scenario<\/strong> that could weigh<\/strong> on US equities markets<\/strong>. We would like to highlight<\/strong> as the next<\/strong> big<\/strong> test<\/strong> for US stock markets<\/strong> the testimony<\/strong> of Fed Chairman Powell<\/strong> before Congress<\/strong> and should he sound hawkish<\/strong> enough, we may see US<\/strong> stock markets<\/strong> retreating<\/strong> and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s rebound stalls<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sticking to equities<\/strong> fundamentals<\/strong> we note the market<\/strong> worries<\/strong> for the recovery<\/strong> of the Ti\u1ebfng Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/strong> economy<\/strong>. On a macroeconomic<\/strong> level<\/strong>, it should be noted that China\u2019s<\/strong> trade<\/strong> surplus<\/strong> narrowed<\/strong> to one-year lows<\/strong>, an indication<\/strong> of fewer<\/strong> international<\/strong> trading<\/strong> transactions<\/strong> and thus lesser<\/strong> wealth<\/strong> entering the Ti\u1ebfng Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/strong> economy<\/strong>. Yet that could be a consequence<\/strong> of the contraction<\/strong> of economic<\/strong> activity<\/strong> suffered by China\u2019s<\/strong> crucial<\/strong> manufacturing<\/strong> sector<\/strong>. It\u2019s characteristic that the Urban<\/strong> investment<\/strong>, industrial production<\/strong> v\u00e0 retail sales<\/strong> growth rates, all slowed dow<\/strong>n for May underscoring<\/strong> the difficulties<\/strong> faced by the Chinese economy<\/strong> on its road<\/strong> to recovery<\/strong>. For the time being, we note that the Central Bank of the People’s Republic of China<\/strong> cut<\/strong> lending<\/strong> rates<\/strong> in an effort<\/strong> to boost<\/strong> activity<\/strong> in the Chinese economy<\/strong>, yet the cuts<\/strong> delivered<\/strong> may not be sufficient<\/strong> to revive<\/strong> it<\/strong>. Overall should the difficulties<\/strong> for the Ti\u1ebfng Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/strong> economy<\/strong> to recover<\/strong> be extended<\/strong> we may see the market<\/strong> sentiment<\/strong> turning risk averse<\/strong>, as the optimism<\/strong> could be reduced<\/strong> with negative<\/strong> consequences<\/strong> for US stock markets<\/strong>. On a deeper level<\/strong>, we also note the conflicting<\/strong> messages<\/strong> sent on a political level<\/strong>. Despite the initial<\/strong> positive signals<\/strong> coming from US Foreign<\/strong> Secretary<\/strong> Blinken\u2019s<\/strong> visit<\/strong> to China<\/strong> that tensions<\/strong> between the two countries may start thawing<\/strong> or at least may not escalate further<\/strong>, US<\/strong> President Biden<\/strong> calling China\u2019s<\/strong> leader Xi<\/strong> as a \u201cdictator<\/strong>\u201d is not expected to go<\/strong> down well<\/strong> with the Ti\u1ebfng Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/strong>. Further escalations<\/strong> of tensions<\/strong> in the US-Sino<\/strong> relationships<\/strong> may intensify<\/strong> market worries<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US100 (Nasdaq) Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Support: 14650 (S1), 13920 (S2), 13300 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 15300 (R1), 16000 (R2), 16750 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nasdaq\u2019s<\/strong> rise<\/strong> over the past month<\/strong> seems to have hit a ceiling<\/strong> on the 15300 (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong> v\u00e0 corrected<\/strong> a bit lower<\/strong>. For the time being we view the consolidation<\/strong> of the index\u2019s<\/strong> price action<\/strong> as a mere correction<\/strong> for now, given that the upward<\/strong> trendline<\/strong> guiding the index<\/strong> remains intact<\/strong>. Furthermore please note that the RSI<\/strong> indicator<\/strong> despite correcting a bit lower<\/strong> is still above the reading<\/strong> of 70<\/strong> underscoring<\/strong> the bullish<\/strong> sentiment<\/strong> of the market<\/strong>, yet may also imply that the index<\/strong> is currently at overbought<\/strong> levels and needs to correct<\/strong> even lower<\/strong>. Please note that the consolidation<\/strong> lower of Nasdaq\u2019s<\/strong> price action<\/strong> began after it hit on the upper<\/strong> Bollinger band<\/strong>, which allowed for some room<\/strong> to be created<\/strong> between the price action<\/strong> and the upper<\/strong> Bollinger band<\/strong>, hence the bulls<\/strong> may have space to cover<\/strong>. Should the bulls<\/strong> maintain control<\/strong> over the index\u2019s<\/strong> direction<\/strong>, we may see Nasdaq<\/strong> breaking the 15300 (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong> and aim for the 16000 (R2) resistance<\/strong> barrier<\/strong>. On the flip side for a bearish<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> the current<\/strong> correction<\/strong> lower<\/strong> is not enough. To call<\/strong> in the bears<\/strong>, we would require<\/strong> Nasdaq<\/strong> to drop<\/strong> below<\/strong> the prementioned<\/strong> upward<\/strong> trendline<\/strong>, in a first sign<\/strong> that the upward<\/strong> movement<\/strong> has been interrupted<\/strong>, break the 14650 (S1) support<\/strong> line<\/strong> clearly<\/strong> and start aiming for the 13920 (S2) support<\/strong> level<\/strong>.        <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.co<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US stock markets tended to remain relatively unchanged in the past few days, maybe even edged a bit lower. We<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEquities report: Equity bulls take a break<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US stocks remain flat or slightly lower as Fed\u2019s hawkish stance shows minimal impact. 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