{"id":61789,"date":"2023-05-04T16:15:25","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T13:15:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/?p=61789"},"modified":"2026-02-05T09:34:11","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T07:34:11","slug":"has-the-rolldown-been-halted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/vi\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\/","title":{"rendered":"Has the rolldown been halted"},"content":{"rendered":"

WTI\/oil<\/a> prices<\/strong> continued to fall<\/strong> over the past few days<\/strong> with WTI<\/strong> reaching prices<\/strong> below $70<\/strong> per barrel<\/strong> yesterday<\/strong>, the lowest<\/strong> level<\/strong> in a month<\/strong>. There seemed to be some upward movement<\/strong> today, yet it still is unconvincing<\/strong> for now. As a key fundamental issue<\/strong> we note the market worries<\/strong> about a possible recession<\/strong> and thus a weakening<\/strong> of the commodity\u2019s<\/strong> demand outlook<\/strong>, yet at the same time we note that the US<\/strong> oil market<\/strong> remains tight<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts<\/strong> driving WTI\u2019s price<\/strong>, assess its future outlook<\/strong> v\u00e0 conclude<\/strong> with a ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Worries for oil demand<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI\u2019s prices <\/strong>started to drop <\/strong>once again on Monday <\/strong>and it\u2019s no surprise <\/strong>that the drop <\/strong>in oil prices coincided <\/strong>with China <\/strong>reporting a contraction <\/strong>of economic activity <\/strong>in its huge manufacturing sector <\/strong>for the past month<\/strong>. Market worries <\/strong>for the demand side <\/strong>of oil <\/strong>tended to intensify <\/strong>as China <\/strong>is a major oil consumer <\/strong>and a contraction <\/strong>of economic activity <\/strong>in the manufacturing sector <\/strong>may have a negative effect <\/strong>also on the demand side <\/strong>of oil<\/strong>. But it\u2019s not only China <\/strong>that\u2019s worrying oil traders<\/strong>. We are in for another round<\/strong> of monetary policy tightening<\/strong>, with the Fed<\/strong> yesterday hiking rates<\/strong> once again by 25 basis points<\/strong> v\u00e0 Fed Chairman Powell<\/strong> in his press conference<\/strong> stating that it is \u201cnot appropriate<\/strong> to cut rates<\/strong>\u201d. That would imply that even should the bank<\/strong> pause its rate hiking path<\/strong>, which the market<\/strong> already expects, it may keep rates<\/strong> at cao<\/strong> levels<\/strong> for a prolonged period of time<\/strong> contradicting market expectations<\/strong> for rate cuts<\/strong> after the summer<\/strong>. Should monetary policy<\/strong> settings<\/strong> remain tight<\/strong> that may have a cumulative<\/strong> lagged<\/strong> adverse<\/strong> effect<\/strong> on economic activity<\/strong> and hence weaken<\/strong> oil demand<\/strong>. Mind you that it is not only the Fed<\/strong> that stepped on the brakes, also RBA<\/strong> surprised<\/strong> the markets<\/strong> by hiking rates<\/strong> after pausing<\/strong>, ECB<\/strong> also hiked rates<\/strong> by 25 basis points<\/strong>, while BoE<\/strong> is expected to follow<\/strong> on the same path<\/strong> next week<\/strong>. Hence, to put it mildly, the demand side<\/strong> of the economy<\/strong> seems to continue to be under<\/strong> threat<\/strong>, which may increase<\/strong> the downward pressure<\/strong> on the commodity\u2019s<\/strong> prices<\/strong>.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPEC\u2019s response<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side<\/strong>, OPEC<\/strong> and its allies<\/strong>, including Russia<\/strong> seem to be implementing<\/strong> their pledge<\/strong> to voluntarily<\/strong> cut<\/strong> production<\/strong> by an additional<\/strong> 1.16 million barrels per day<\/strong> (bpd<\/strong>). It\u2019s characteristic that besides Saudi Arabia<\/strong> cutting<\/strong> production<\/strong> also Russia’s<\/strong> Deputy<\/strong> Prime<\/strong> Minister<\/strong> Alexander<\/strong> Novak<\/strong> stated today that Russia<\/strong> is keeping<\/strong> its voluntary production cuts<\/strong> of 500k<\/strong> barrels per day<\/strong>, from February<\/strong> until the end of the year<\/strong>. So OPEC\u2019<\/strong>s production side<\/strong> seems to remain tight<\/strong>, yet that was already priced in<\/strong> by the market<\/strong> and with no additional production cuts<\/strong> from the oil-producing cartel<\/strong> on the horizon<\/strong>, it may play little role<\/strong> in oil price action<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation in the US oil market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The USD<\/strong> oil production<\/strong> levels<\/strong> had risen steadily<\/strong> in the first two months<\/strong> of the year<\/strong>, yet that tendency<\/strong> seemed to have been halted<\/strong>. We note that the number<\/strong> of active oil rigs<\/strong> in the US<\/strong> remains relatively<\/strong> stable<\/strong> over the past two months<\/strong>, just below<\/strong> 600<\/strong>. On the other hand, we cannot miss out<\/strong> on commenting that US<\/strong> oil inventories<\/strong> have been dropping<\/strong> with API<\/strong> reporting a drawdown<\/strong> of -3.939 million barrels and EIA<\/strong> a drawdown<\/strong> of -1.280 million barrels practically<\/strong> highlighting<\/strong> the tightness<\/strong> of the US oil market<\/strong> as production levels<\/strong> were not<\/strong> able to reach<\/strong> demand<\/strong>. Yet both releases<\/strong> tended to leave oil traders<\/strong> unimpressed<\/strong> as oil prices<\/strong> continued<\/strong> to decline<\/strong> after the<\/strong> releases. Hence the US<\/strong> oil market<\/strong> tightness<\/strong> seems also to be largely priced<\/strong> in by the markets<\/strong>. Despite a halt<\/strong> in the drop<\/strong> of oil prices<\/strong> today<\/strong>, the rise<\/strong> may prove<\/strong> to be temporary<\/strong> and a mere<\/strong> correction<\/strong> should c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/strong> worries<\/strong> for the demand side<\/strong> of oil<\/strong> not be lifted<\/strong> or should there be no additional<\/strong> tightening<\/strong> of oil production<\/strong>. <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash 4H Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Support: 66.50 (S1), 64.00 (S2), 61.50 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Resistance: 71.00 (R1), 74.00 (R2), 77.00 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Looking at WTI Cash 4-hour chart<\/strong> we see observe crude<\/strong> losing<\/strong> the floor<\/strong> under its feet<\/strong>, plunging to its lowest<\/strong> levels<\/strong> in almost two and a half years<\/strong>, but then quickly<\/strong> rebounding<\/strong> to the $68 per barrel <\/strong>level as traders indulged in some dip buying activity<\/strong>. We hold a bearish outlook<\/strong> bias<\/strong> for the commodity<\/strong> given the sharp drop<\/strong> and supporting our case is the RSI indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart<\/strong> which currently registers a value of 25, highlighting the extreme bearish sentiment<\/strong> surrounding WTI<\/strong>. We must point out however, that the move appears overextended<\/strong> and a possible correction<\/strong> ho\u1eb7c consolidation<\/strong> near the $65.50<\/strong> (S1) support base<\/strong> may be due<\/strong>. Should the bears<\/strong> continue to reign<\/strong> over and capitalize<\/strong> on the absence of bulls<\/strong>, we may see the definitive<\/strong> break<\/strong> below the $66.50<\/strong> (S1) support level<\/strong> with the price action<\/strong> edging closer<\/strong> to the fresh $64.00<\/strong> (S2) support level<\/strong>. Under extreme<\/strong> selling conditions<\/strong>, we may even see the crude<\/strong> prices<\/strong> falling<\/strong> towards the 61.50<\/strong> (S3) base<\/strong>, reaching levels<\/strong> once seen before in August<\/strong> of 2021<\/strong>. Should, on the other hand, the bulls<\/strong> start piling<\/strong> in, we may see the rise and the break above the 71.00<\/strong> (R1) resistance level<\/strong> and the move towards the 74.00<\/strong> (R2) resistance barrier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disclaimer:
    This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    WTI\/oil prices continued to fall over the past few days with WTI reaching…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-commodities","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOil Analysis Report: Has the rolldown been halted?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oil prices slide below $70 as recession fears weigh on demand, while tight US supply and OPEC cuts offer limited support to WTI.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Has the rolldown been halted\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Oil prices slide below $70 as recession fears weigh on demand, while tight US supply and OPEC cuts offer limited support to WTI.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/vi\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-05-04T13:15:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-05T07:34:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"IronFX Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/vi\\\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/vi\\\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"IronFX Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6727476356d10030d1564b38f6e699b1\"},\"headline\":\"Has the rolldown been halted\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-04T13:15:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-05T07:34:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/vi\\\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":921,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"vi\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/vi\\\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/vi\\\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\\\/\",\"name\":\"Oil Analysis Report: Has the rolldown been halted?\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-04T13:15:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-05T07:34:11+00:00\",\"description\":\"Oil prices slide below $70 as recession fears weigh on demand, while tight US supply and OPEC cuts offer limited support to WTI.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/vi\\\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"vi\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/vi\\\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/vi\\\/has-the-rolldown-been-halted\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/vi\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Has the rolldown been halted\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-cn.com\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\",\"description\":\""Our Introducing Brokers program offers competitive conditions tailored to our partners' needs. 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