Fed Rate Cut & BoC Decision: USD Weakens

As was widely expected the Fed delivered its third consecutive rate cut lowering the Fed Funds target rate to +1.75%. The bank may have also signalled that there is to be a pause as it dropped its usual line that “it will act as appropriately” to sustain economic expansion. It should be noted that the bank also sees the uncertainties about the outlook of the US economy remaining and at the same time will continue to monitor the incoming info “as it assesses the appropriate path” for the interest rates. In his press conference Fed Chair Powell, sounded more hawkish on the short term as he stated that the monetary policy is “in a good place”, while seemed to be more dovish as for the long-term picture. In general, the market was a bit disappointed as it may have been expecting a more hawkish stance by the bank, hence pushing the USD lower against a number of other currencies. EUR/USD rose yesterday, breaking the 1.1150 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. Given today’s financial releases and despite the pair’s rise yesterday, we tend to maintain a bearish outlook for the pair. Please bear in mind that the RSI indicator in the 4-hour chart is near the reading of 70, implying a rather overcrowded long position for the pair. Should the pair’s long positions be favoured by the market, we could see the pair breaking the 1.1200 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1250 (R2) resistance level. Should the pair come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 1.1150 (S1) support line, and aim for the 1.1105 (S2) support level.

…while BoC remained on hold…

Before the Fed, BoC released its own interest rate decision and as was widely expected the bank remained on hold at +1.75%. In its accompanying statement the bank sounded quite dovish, stating that the Canadian economy “will be increasingly tested” as trade frictions and uncertainty persist, thus the bank lowered its expectations about global growth. The bank also stated that it will pay attention to sources of resilience for the Canadian economy such as consumer spending and housing activity. In the following press conference BoC Governor Poloz stated that the worsening global situation was the primary issue for BoC deliberation. The market seemed to perceive the statement as dovish, hence the CAD weakened against the USD and we expect it to be data and oil driven in the next few days. USD/CAD rose yesterday, breaking the 1.3125 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We could see the pair correcting a bit lower, yet our base scenario for the time being could include a stabilization of the pair. Please bear in mind that the RSI indicator in the 4-hour chart is near the reading of 70, implying a rather overcrowded long position for the pair. Should the bears dictate the pair’s direction, we could see it breaking the 1.3125 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.3025 (S2) support level. If the bulls take over, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3230 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3335 (R2) resistance level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

In today’s European session, we get Germany’s retail sales growth rate for September, France’s preliminary CPI (EU Normalised) rate for October, Eurozone’s preliminary CPI rate for October and preliminary GDP growth rate for Q3. In the American session, we get from the US the core PCE price index growth rate for September, the consumption rate for September and the initial jobless claims figure for last week, while form Canada we get the GDP growth rate for August. During the Asian session tomorrow, we get Australia’s PPI rate for Q3 and China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for October. As for speakers, please note that ECB’s De Guindos and SNB’s Chairman Jordan Thomas are scheduled to speak today.

USD/CAD 4 Hour