{"id":70760,"date":"2023-10-09T13:15:22","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T10:15:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=70760"},"modified":"2025-11-19T14:17:15","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T12:17:15","slug":"geopolitical-tensions-seem-to-be-aiding-golds-ascent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/ru\/geopolitical-tensions-seem-to-be-aiding-golds-ascent\/","title":{"rendered":"Geopolitical tensions seem to be aiding Gold\u2019s ascent"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold at the time of this report, seems to be moving in an upwards fashion, gold report since last week<\/a>. We note the high volatility in the gold market, as tensions in the Middle East appear to be rising, with the risk of a regional conflict, may keep volatility elevated until the current conflict is resolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving gold\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Over the weekend, tensions<\/strong> appear to have escalated in the Middle East<\/strong>, causing great concern over the stability of the region. The increasing Geopolitical tensions carry the risk of spilling into a regional confrontation, which may destabilize the Middle East and given the region\u2019s significance to the global<\/strong> markets<\/strong>, it may have a significant impact on global economies which are not directly involved. Furthermore, it would appear that the heightened risks of a regional conflict appear to be making their way into the commodities markets, in particular gold<\/strong>. Therefore, given the precious metals safe haven status, it appears that the particular relationship is once again being evident, as gold appears to have received safe haven inflows, which may have aided to the precious metal\u2019s ascent during today\u2019s trading session. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, we would like to highlight that the US September Non-Farm Payrolls figure, vastly exceeded market expectations last Friday. As such, with a perceived tight labor market, the Fed<\/strong> may have to hike in their next monetary policy meeting, which is due to take place at the beginning of November. The possibility of a hike by the Fed<\/strong>, could support the greenback and due to their inverse relationship with the precious, it could weigh on the price of gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Banks continue their gold hoarding spree<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to the World Gold Council<\/strong>, Central Banks have collectively increased their gold reserves for the third row in a month, adding 77 trillion to global official reserves during the month of August, which is a 38% up-tick from July. The continued addition of gold reserves, on a macro-economic level, may provide some support the precious metal<\/strong> over the long run, thus potentially mitigating impacts from factors which may negatively affect the price of gold. Moreover, the gradual but steady increase in gold reserves<\/strong> by central banks, may be indicative of a continued concern by central banks that an economic downturn may be nearing and as such by diversifying into the precious metal, they may be hedging against times of financial uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, on a macro-economic level, we may see the precious metal gaining support in the long run. However, currently high interest rate levels, could potentially overshadow the gold hoarding by central banks<\/strong>, as policymakers have indicated that they may stay at their current levels for a prolonged period of time. As such, we may see demand for the precious weakening, as other interest-bearing assets such as Government bonds<\/strong>, may be more appealing to investors, thus potentially weighing on the precious metal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold – Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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