{"id":121569,"date":"2025-10-14T16:17:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T13:17:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=121569"},"modified":"2026-01-16T14:06:22","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T12:06:22","slug":"golds-weekly-update-xau-usd-bulls-in-the-china-shop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/ru\/golds-weekly-update-xau-usd-bulls-in-the-china-shop\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold\u2019s Weekly Update: XAU\/USD bulls in the China shop"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price since our last report continued to rise<\/a> despite a hiccup last Thursday, reaching new All-Time-Highs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today on a fundamental level we are to discuss issues that currently affect gold\u2019s price among which being US President Trump\u2019s threats to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese products, the validity of the negative correlation of gold to the USD and the Fed\u2019s stance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a technical level we are to provide an analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart at the end of report for a rounder view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US-Sino trade tensions feed gold bulls<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Maybe the main fundamental issue rocking the markets in the past few days was US President Trump\u2019s threats to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese products on US imports from China, \u201cover and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,\u201d starting on Nov. 1. US officials later including US President Trump tried to ease the market\u2019s worries by stating “Don’t worry about China, everything will be fine!\u201d while also praising Chinese President Xi Jinping. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US and China set to begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms from each other\u2019s respective nation, that ship anything from toys to crude oil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, China will not be charging those additional fees on Chinese-built ships even if they are operated by a U.S company. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tit-for-tat fees and threats of tariffs could possibly upend the global trade economy and may result in heightened volatility in the markets, as the two world\u2019s economic superpowers appear to be on track for a trade war starting on the 1st of November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the issue prove to be nothing more than a negotiating tactic on behalf of Trump thus easing the market\u2019s worries, we may see it weighing on gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side further escalation in the tensions of the US-Sino trade relationships, may continue feeding gold bulls with safe haven inflows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold\u2019s negative correlation with the USD remains inactive<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another issue we keep an out for is the validity of the negative correlation of the USD with gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the current stage we note that gold\u2019s price was on the rise over the past week, with a slight correction lower last Thursday. Similarly the USD was on the rise in the past seven days with a correction lower last Friday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Practically the two trading instruments rise in parallel, practically rendering the negative correlation between them, as inactive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also note that the US bond yields continued to fall substantially yesterday signalling the retreat of investors to safety and reducing the attractiveness of US Bonds which are antagonistic to gold as a safe haven investment, thus could provide support for the precious metal\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s stance<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last but not least we tend to have a look at releases that could affect gold\u2019s price, yet given that the US Government shutdown continues, practically leaving the calendar empty we turn our attention on the Fed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently the market is expecting the bank to proceed with two more rate cuts until the end of the year and proceed with more easing in 2026, clearly leaning on the dovish side. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key event of the week on a monetary level is expected to be the speech of Fed Chairman Powell and should he stress his doubts for the necessity of extensive further easing of the bank\u2019s monetary policy, giving the speech a relatively hawkish twist, we may see the speech weighing on gold\u2019s price, while a possibly dovish tone could provide renewed support for the precious metal\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also have a number of Fed policymakers schedule to speak next week and a quick reminder Fed policymakers seem to be split on the matter of how far the bank should ease its monetary policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed policymakers such as Miran and Williams tend to be leaning more on the dovish side, while others such as Schmidt and Bostic tend to maintain their doubts, albeit Bostic seems to be rethinking his stance lately and may flip sides. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should we see more Fed Policymakers stressing the need for extensive easing of the Fed\u2019s monetary policy we may see gold\u2019s price getting some support and vice versa.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n