{"id":60581,"date":"2023-04-13T16:46:19","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T13:46:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=60581"},"modified":"2025-10-17T09:28:48","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T06:28:48","slug":"oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/ph\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Crude<\/strong> is currently on track to record its <strong>fourth<\/strong> <strong>straight<\/strong> <strong>week<\/strong> in the <strong>greens<\/strong>, resuming its <strong>upward movement<\/strong> and increasing the <strong>gains<\/strong> made after the <strong>production cut<\/strong> announcement of <strong>OPEC<\/strong>. We have to note that the <strong>market worries<\/strong> for the <strong>supply side<\/strong> of the <strong>commodity<\/strong> and the <strong>tightness<\/strong> of the <strong>oil market<\/strong> may have been the main contributor to its rise. On the flip side <strong>market worries<\/strong> for a possible <strong>recession<\/strong> in the <strong>US economy<\/strong> seem to have started to <strong>grow<\/strong> also <strong>worries<\/strong> for the <strong>demand side<\/strong> of <strong>oil<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to <strong>shed<\/strong> <strong>light<\/strong> on the <strong>catalysts<\/strong> driving <strong>WTI<\/strong>\u2019s <strong>price<\/strong>, assess its <strong>future outlook<\/strong> and conclude with a <strong>teknikal na pagsusuri<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-situation-in-the-us-oil-market\"><strong>The situation in the US oil market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US<\/strong> <strong>oil reserves<\/strong> seem to have been on the <strong>rise<\/strong> slightly this week. It was characteristic that the <strong>API<\/strong> weekly reading showed an <strong>increase<\/strong> of was of <strong>0.377 million barrels<\/strong>, a reading similar to the <strong>EIA<\/strong> release of an increase of <strong>0.597 million barrels<\/strong>. The releases tended to imply that <strong>production<\/strong> was <strong>able<\/strong> to <strong>catch up<\/strong> to <strong>demand<\/strong> levels after two consecutive weeks of <strong>drawdowns<\/strong>, yet <strong>analysts<\/strong> tended to note that the <strong>increase<\/strong> of <strong>oil reserves<\/strong> was due to another release from the <strong>US Strategic Petroleum Reserve<\/strong> (<strong>SPR<\/strong>). Hence we continue to view the <strong>US oil market<\/strong> as rather <strong>tight<\/strong>. Please note that the <strong>US Government<\/strong> has expressed a <strong>desire<\/strong> to <strong>replenish<\/strong> the <strong>SPR<\/strong> soon, hoping also to <strong>refill<\/strong> the <strong>SPR<\/strong> at a <strong>lower price<\/strong>. Should the <strong>US Government<\/strong> actually <strong>proceed<\/strong> with the <strong>refill<\/strong> of <strong>SPR<\/strong> that would provide <strong>additional<\/strong> <strong>demand<\/strong> for <strong>oil<\/strong> adding additional <strong>strain<\/strong> to the <strong>US oil market<\/strong>, given also that the <strong>Baker Hughes<\/strong> oil rig count showed another <strong>reduction<\/strong> of <strong>active<\/strong> <strong>oil wells<\/strong> in the <strong>US<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-opec-s-cuts\"><strong>OPEC\u2019s cuts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week we highlighted the production cuts announced by <strong>OPEC+<\/strong>, yet for the time being it seems that <strong>Saudi Arabia<\/strong> maintained the <strong>supply levels<\/strong> to <strong>Asia<\/strong> for May. It should be noted that <strong>Saudi Arabia<\/strong> had pledged an <strong>additional<\/strong> <strong>production cut<\/strong> of <strong>500k barrels per day<\/strong>. We see the <strong>oil production cut<\/strong> <strong>announcement<\/strong> as another <strong>sign<\/strong> of the <strong>distance<\/strong> between the <strong>US<\/strong> at <strong>Saudi Arabia<\/strong>, something that in <strong>conjunction<\/strong> with the <strong>financial needs<\/strong> of the <strong>Saudi Kingdom<\/strong> may push <strong>oil prices<\/strong> even higher. It should be noted that <strong>OPEC<\/strong>\u2019s <strong>monthly report<\/strong>, which was released today tends to <strong>highlight<\/strong> <strong>downside<\/strong> <strong>risks<\/strong> regarding the <strong>oil market<\/strong>, in the <strong>summer<\/strong> <strong>months<\/strong>. Practically the <strong>oil-producing<\/strong> <strong>cartel<\/strong> seems to worry about an <strong>easing demand<\/strong> in the <strong>US<\/strong>, as the <strong>economy<\/strong> may suffer a <strong>hit<\/strong> from the <strong>Fed\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>monetary policy tightening<\/strong>. Also, the <strong>reopening<\/strong> of <strong>China<\/strong>, may not have <strong>delivered<\/strong> the <strong>expected<\/strong> <strong>increase<\/strong> in <strong>oil demand<\/strong>, at least not yet. These <strong>worries<\/strong> could <strong>provide<\/strong> <strong>reasons<\/strong> for <strong>OPEC<\/strong> to maintain or even <strong>deepen<\/strong> <strong>further<\/strong> the <strong>low oil production levels<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-demand-side-worries\"><strong>The demand side worries<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s characteristic that <strong>OPEC\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>monthly<\/strong> <strong>report<\/strong> sites &#8220;It should be noted that <strong>potential<\/strong> <strong>challenges<\/strong> to <strong>global<\/strong> <strong>economic development<\/strong> include <strong>high inflation<\/strong>, <strong>monetary tightening<\/strong>, stability of <strong>pampinansyal na merkado<\/strong> at <strong>high sovereign<\/strong>, <strong>corporate<\/strong> at <strong>private debt<\/strong> <strong>levels<\/strong>,&#8221; and that &#8220;The impact of the recent <strong>reopening<\/strong> of <strong>China<\/strong> has still not been <strong>sufficient<\/strong> to <strong>reverse<\/strong> the <strong>declining<\/strong> <strong>trend<\/strong> in <strong>global<\/strong> <strong>refinery<\/strong> <strong>intakes<\/strong>,&#8221;. Yet, China\u2019s <strong>crude oil imports<\/strong> were on the rise, with <strong>Reuters<\/strong> citing a <strong>22.5% increase<\/strong> for <strong>March<\/strong> in <strong>comparison<\/strong> to a <strong>year<\/strong> <strong>earlier<\/strong>. There are also <strong>worries<\/strong> for the <strong>demand side<\/strong> in the <strong>US<\/strong> which tended to <strong>intensify<\/strong> as the <strong>Fed\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>March<\/strong> <strong>meeting<\/strong> <strong>minutes<\/strong> revealed that <strong>Fed staff<\/strong>, is expecting the <strong>US economy<\/strong> to fall into a \u201c<strong>mild recession<\/strong>\u201d during the year. Such a <strong>recession<\/strong> may exactly <strong>lower<\/strong> <strong>oil demand<\/strong> from the <strong>US<\/strong> setting <strong>oil prices<\/strong> <strong>under pressure<\/strong>. It should be noted that the <strong>US<\/strong> <strong>central bank<\/strong> is still not over with <strong>monetary policy<\/strong> tightening and may intensify the hit on the <strong>US economy<\/strong>. Given the <strong>lagging effect<\/strong> of <strong>monetary policy<\/strong> tightening on the <strong>economy<\/strong>, we may expect the <strong>worse<\/strong> yet to come. Please note that <strong>economic activity<\/strong> in the <strong>US manufacturing sector<\/strong> showed another <strong>contraction<\/strong> for the month of <strong>March<\/strong> while the <strong>expansion<\/strong> in the <strong>Chinese manufacturing sector<\/strong> may be <strong>marginal<\/strong> for the <strong>same month<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\"><strong>Teknikal na Pagsusuri<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"292\" data-id=\"60696\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Graph.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-60696\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 82.00 (S1), 72.80 (S2), 66.10 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 89.15 (R1), 97.15 (R2), 102.80 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>WTI\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>price<\/strong> <strong>edged<\/strong> <strong>higher<\/strong> in the past <strong>few days<\/strong> being finally able to <strong>break<\/strong> the 82.00 (S1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>line<\/strong>, now <strong>turned<\/strong> to <strong>support<\/strong>. Given the <strong>commodity\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>price action<\/strong> and the fact that the <strong>RSI<\/strong> <strong>indicator<\/strong> is currently above the <strong>reading<\/strong> of 70, implying a <strong>rather<\/strong> <strong>bullish sentiment<\/strong> on behalf of the <strong>market<\/strong>, we tend to maintain a <strong>bullish outlook<\/strong> for the <strong>commodity\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>price<\/strong>. Please note though that <strong>WTI\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>price<\/strong> seems to be nearing <strong>overbought levels<\/strong> and may be ripe for a <strong>correction lower<\/strong>. <strong>WTI\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>price<\/strong> <strong>rose<\/strong> yet stabilised in the past 20 hours after hitting on the <strong>upper Bollinger band<\/strong>, allowing for <strong>little room<\/strong> for the <strong>bulls<\/strong> to play, in another sign of possible <strong>stabilisation<\/strong>. Should the <strong>bulls<\/strong> maintain <strong>control<\/strong> and extend their <strong>influence<\/strong> we may see <strong>WTI\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>price<\/strong> <strong>rising<\/strong> at <strong>reaching<\/strong> if not <strong>breaching<\/strong> the <strong>89.15<\/strong> (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>line<\/strong>. Despite the <strong>distance<\/strong> between the <strong>S1<\/strong> and the <strong>R1<\/strong> being quite <strong>wide<\/strong>, <strong>WTI\u2019s<\/strong> price was <strong>able<\/strong> to <strong>cover<\/strong> such <strong>distances<\/strong> easily within a <strong>week<\/strong>, in the past. Should the <strong>R1<\/strong> be <strong>broken<\/strong> we note as the next <strong>possible<\/strong> <strong>target<\/strong> for the <strong>bulls<\/strong> the 97.15 (R2) <strong>resistance level<\/strong>, which has not seen any <strong>price action<\/strong> since <strong>August<\/strong> last year. Should the <strong>bears<\/strong> take over, we may see <strong>WTI\u2019s<\/strong> price <strong>reversing direction<\/strong>, <strong>breaking<\/strong> the <strong>82.00<\/strong> (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>line<\/strong>, <strong>paving the way<\/strong> for the <strong>72.80<\/strong> (S2) <strong>support level<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br><em>This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude is currently on track to record its fourth straight week in the greens&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-commodities","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Crude is currently on track to record its fourth straight week in the greens, resuming its upward movement and increasing\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/ph\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60581\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Crude is currently on track to record its fourth straight week in the greens, resuming its upward movement and increasing\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/ph\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-13T13:46:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-17T06:28:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"IronFX Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"IronFX Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6727476356d10030d1564b38f6e699b1\"},\"headline\":\"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-13T13:46:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T06:28:48+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":967,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"tl\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\",\"name\":\"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-13T13:46:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T06:28:48+00:00\",\"description\":\"Crude is currently on track to record its fourth straight week in the greens, resuming its upward movement and increasing\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"tl\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/ph\\\/\",\"name\":\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\",\"description\":\"&quot;Our Introducing Brokers program offers competitive conditions tailored to our partners&#039; needs. 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