{"id":90607,"date":"2024-09-16T11:37:12","date_gmt":"2024-09-16T08:37:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=90607"},"modified":"2024-09-16T11:37:37","modified_gmt":"2024-09-16T08:37:37","slug":"chinas-economy-slows-eyes-on-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/ja\/chinas-economy-slows-eyes-on-the-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s economy slows, eyes on the Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"

The USD continued to lose ground against its counterparts during today\u2019s Asian session, as the market\u2019s attention fixates on the release of the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision on Wednesday. The bank is expected to proceed with an outsized rate cut of 50 basis points and currently Fed Fund Futures imply a probability of 59% for such a scenario to materialise. Such a scenario, if also accompanied by a dovish tone in the accompanying statement and Fed Chairman Powell\u2019s press conference, could weigh on the USD yet at the same time could provide support for US stock markets and gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

On a technical level we note that major US stock market indexes such as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were on the rise in the past week. It\u2019s characteristic that the S&P 500 almost fully recovered the losses of the first week of September and is now aiming for the 5675 (R1) resistance line, which is a record high level. The RSI indicator has risen above the reading of 50, implying the build up of bullish tendencies for the index. Yet for a bullish outlook we would require the index to break the 5675 (R1) resistance line which was tested twice in the past two months and managed to reverse the bullish tendencies for the index. Should the R1 be broken, we set as the next possible target for the bulls the 5900 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see the index reversing direction and aiming if not breaking the 5440 (S1) support line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also note that China\u2019s economy continues to show signs of slowing growth, given that on Saturday the released industrial output and retail sales growth rates for August, showed a slowdown beyond market expectations. The slow down may endanger China\u2019s 5% growth target as the release implies a worsening of both the production and internal demand side of the Chinese economy. Calls for an increase of the Chinese government\u2019s fiscal stimulus and PBoC\u2019s monetary easing are multiplying. The market worries for the outlook of the Chinese economy are intensifying and in turn may weigh on riskier assets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite AUD\/USD opening with a negative gap this morning, it rose, regaining Friday\u2019s losses and is currently testing the 0.6730 (R1) resistance line. We tend to maintain a bias for a sideways motion for the time being but we acknowledge some bullish tendencies. The RSI indicator remains close to the reading of 50, implying still a rather indecisive market. Hence, for a bullish outlook, we would require the pair to clearly break the 0.6730 (R1) resistance line and start actively aiming for the 0.6870 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair reversing course and aiming if not breaking the 0.6575 (S1) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306e\u305d\u306e\u4ed6\u306e\u6ce8\u76ee\u70b9<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we get the Czech Republic\u2019s PPI rates for August and later on the US NY Fed Manufacturing for September and Canada\u2019s July manufacturing sales while ECB\u2019s Lane and Guindos are scheduled to speak.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4eca\u9031\u306e\u6307\u6570\u767a\u8868<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday we get Germany\u2019s ZEW figures for September, Canada\u2019s housing starts figure, the US retail sales rate, Canada\u2019s CPI rates and the US industrial production rate all for the month of August. On Wednesday Japan\u2019s machinery orders for July and trade balance figure for August, the UK\u2019s CPI rates and the Eurozone\u2019s final HICP rate both for the month of August and we highlight the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision. On Thursday on the monetary front, we get Norway\u2019s Norgesbank, Turkey\u2019s CBT and UK\u2019s BOE interest rate decisions, we get, New Zealand\u2019s GDP rate for Q2, Australia\u2019s employment data for August, the US weekly initial jobless claims figure and the US Philly Fed Business index for September. On Friday, we highlight from Japan, BoJ\u2019s interest rate decision and we get Japan\u2019s CPI rates for August, the UK\u2019s retail sales rate for August, France\u2019s business climate figure for September, Canada\u2019s producer prices rate for August and ending off the week is the Eurozone\u2019s preliminary consumer confidence figure for September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US 500 Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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