USD Rises on Hawkish Fed Signals

昨日、米ドルは全面的に上昇した。タカ派的なFRBに対する市場の期待が維持され、同時に多くの弾力的なインフレ指数がそのシナリオを強調したためである。まず、1月の住宅着工件数と建築許可件数がともに減少し、米国の建設部門の経済活動の縮小を示唆する結果となった。雇用市場では、週次新規失業保険申請件数が増加する代わりに減少し、米国雇用市場の逼迫が依然として存在することを示唆しており、米ドルにとってプラスとなった。

It should be noted that WTI’s price has been driven lower also due to market worries that the Fed’s hawkishness is to curtail economic activity further and may have an adverse effect on oil demand, a concern that has also been reflected in markets lately as USD Rises on tightening expectations. Across the Atlantic, we note that the UK’s retail sales growth rate accelerated more than expected, which was a positive for the UK on a macroeconomic level, yet failed to excite pound traders, especially as USD Rises tends to pressure other major currencies. On a monetary level, we note that BoE’s chief economist Huw Pill stated that the bank is to raise rates at a slower pace this year yet has to remain vigilant not to end its rate hiking cycle too soon. The pound’s drop though is unlikely to be halted easily as market worries for a possible recession in the UK economy are still intense, particularly when USD Rises amplify currency imbalances. Finally, we note RBA Governor Lowe, despite the political pressure being exercised on the bank due to the continuous rate hikes, defended the bank’s hawkish stance and expressed the hope that rates may start coming down in 2024.

米国北部では、FRBの思惑やBoCとの金融政策見通しの乖離拡大を懸念してカナダドルが対米ドルで下落したが、原油価格が5日連続で下落したことでカナダドルも下げたことに注目したい。なお、WTIの価格は、FRBのタカ派的な姿勢が経済活動をさらに抑制し、原油需要に悪影響を与えるのではないかという市場の懸念からも下落している。大西洋の向こう側では、英国の小売売上高の伸び率が予想以上に加速し、マクロ経済レベルでは英国にとってプラスとなったが、ポンド投資家を興奮させるまでには至らなかったことに

USD/CAD was on the rise yesterday breaking the 1.3465 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. Given that the RSI indicator has reached the reading of 70 and an upward trendline is supporting the pair, we tend to maintain a bullish outlook for the pair. Should the ascent higher be maintained we may see USD/CAD breaking the 1.3570 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3685 (R2) level. Should a selling interest be expressed we may see USD/CAD, reversing course and breaking the 1.3465 (S1) support line, the upward trendline and aim for the 1.3335 (S2) support level.

その他の注目材料

In an easy Friday, we note during the European session the release of UK’s retail sales growth rate for January as well as the France’s final HICP rates for the same month. On the monetary front ECB policymaker De Galhau speaks. In the American session, we note the release of Canada’s producer prices for January while Richmond Fed President Barkin and Fed Board Governor Bowman are scheduled to speak.