Bitcoin struggles to find direction after four straight weekly losses

Bitcoin fluctuated after recording its fourth straight weekly decline, struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally lost momentum.

The largest digital token ended Sunday down 2.6% for the week, a brief gain that pushed it near $71,000 on Saturday. Bitcoin fell a further 2.1% to $67,360 as of 10:45 a.m. in New York on Monday, while the second-largest cryptocurrency Ether fell to $1,948.

Bitcoin has plunged more than 40% from its all-time peak near $127,000 in October, struggling to latch onto rallies in gold or equities. According to data from CoinGecko, the broader crypto market has lost nearly $2 trillion in value over the same period.

Analysts debate whether a bottom is in

“The big question on everyone’s mind is whether crypto has bottomed out or if there’s still more downside on the horizon,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, wrote in a note.

Sentiment around digital-asset treasury holdings and money flowing into or out of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will be key indicators to watch, he said.

October selloff sparks extended decline

Bitcoin’s downturn began with a major selloff on October 10, when billions of dollars in crypto positions were liquidated. Since then, investors have withdrawn over $8.4 billion from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Analysts at Standard Chartered, who have generally been bullish about the cryptocurrency’s outlook, have reduced their year-end 2026 forecast by a third.

The bank expects Bitcoin to fall further to $50,000, before recovering to close the year around $100,000. That’s down from an earlier forecast of $150,000.

Still, some analysts say the technical picture suggests there is still potential for a recovery.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia, said: “As long as Bitcoin holds above the 200-week moving average at $58,239 — a level it successfully defended two weeks ago — there remains scope for a recovery toward initial resistance at $73,000 to $75,000.”

Bitcoin tracks equity weakness

Bitcoin dropped ahead of the US market open following a three-day break, reflecting weakness in equity futures as investors adopted a more cautious stance on the macroeconomic outlook.

On Tuesday 17 February, the crypto fell as much as 1.7% to $67,6586. Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.9% and S&P 500 contracts lost 0.6%, pointing to a softer start for Wall Street. Bitcoin, which has traded like a high-beta tech proxy in recent months, tracked the move lower.

Market participants are weighing rising geopolitical tensions around Iran along renewed discussions over whether artificial intelligence could have economic effects beyond the tech sector. The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts is also back in focus following last week’s inflation data.

ETF outflows and fragile sentiment

Flows continue to weigh on the market. US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with $360 million withdrawn last week.

Investor sentiment remains fragile. On Monday 16 February, CryptoQuant’s Fear and Greed Index stood at 10 out of 100 on Monday, firmly in “extreme fear” territory.

“Macro news has been closely correlated with crypto’s risk profile the last 12 months,” said Paul Howard, senior director at market maker Wincent. He expects consolidation as Bitcoin searches for fresh sentiment drivers, adding that a US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs due Friday could prove more consequential than routine Fed minutes or inflation prints.

Investors are also questioning whether Bitcoin has created a stable floor. Many view $60,000 as a key support level, but that may not hold if risk appetite continues to decline, said Robin Singh, chief executive officer of crypto tax platform Koinly.

“One macro wobble, another wave of uncertainty, or even just sustained chop in the mid-$60,000s could easily tip this into a sharper flush back into the $50,000s. This doesn’t have the same full capitulation feel we’ve seen at true cycle bottoms in the past,” Singh said.

Weekend rally fades

Over the weekend, Bitcoin experienced a brief rally toward $70,000, but mild profit-taking followed. Many traders decided to lock in their gains instead of holding longer. This caused the price to decline slightly. Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies also showed similar behaviour.

Futures market data indicates that liquidations have recently totalled more than $157 million. Most were long positions, which means that traders who expected price increases had losses. Such liquidations often increase volatility and make prices go up quickly. It also shows that many market participants were too aggressive.

Corporate exposure to Bitcoin volatility

Corporate news is also impacting the crypto space. Some Bitcoin-holding companies reported higher operating profits because of income strategies linked to BTC.

At the same time, other companies reported non-cash losses because of price changes. This mixed performance shows that corporate balance sheets are more sensitive to digital asset movements.

Dollar moves and risk appetite

Global markets are sending mixed signals right now. Currency moves, especially the US dollar, are having an effect on Bitcoin’s short-term price. A weaker dollar can help Bitcoin, but crypto investors are still cautious and hesitant to take big risks.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in “extreme fear”, which means that many traders are worried about what will happen next. Prices can change quickly when fear is high. Strong, cautious optimism can lead to a rebound, but this doesn’t happen very often.

On-chain data shows that BTC whales are not selling in large amounts. Transaction levels and miner activity are steady, which suggests the network itself is still stable even though prices are going up and down. Still, short-term momentum is weak now.

Bitcoin price prediction and outlook

Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, reflecting the effect of recent dips. A price of $68,348 shows uncertainty in the market. Key resistance is near $70,000, while $68,000 acts as important support. A break in either direction could decide the next strong move.

The short-term outlook looks slightly bearish due to repeated rejections near $70,000 and futures liquidations. Long-term structure has not completely broken.

The coming days will be critical to see whether buyers step in strongly or sellers regain control. Market conditions feel tense, and traders are closely monitoring every move.

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