Low Volatility Ahead of July’s US CPI Release

米ドル相場は昨日少し上昇したが、閑散とした市場で横ばいという全体像は変わっていないようだ。市場の関心は、7月の米消費者物価指数の発表に向かいつつある。フィラデルフィア連銀のハーカー総裁が、市場予想に沿ったピーク金利に達した可能性を示唆した。しかし、同時にFRBの政策立案者でもあるリッチモンド連銀のバーキン総裁は、利上げ休止の可能性を示唆する発言に終始した。

USD/CAD corrected lower volatility yesterday, breaking below the 1.3450 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. The RSI indicator also corrected lower yet remained above the cut-off point of 50 and the price action respected the upward trendline, yet seems about to put it to the test. Should the upward trendline be clearly broken signaling an interruption of the upward movement we would abandon our current bullish outlook. For the bulls to maintain control over the pair, USD/CAD has to break the 1.3450 (R1) resistance line once again and aim for the 1.3565 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the prementioned upward trendline but also the 1.3335 (S1) support level, which held its ground on the 4th of August, with the next possible target for the bears being set at the 1.3230 (S2) support barrier.

一方、月曜遅くにムーディーズが多数の中堅銀行を格下げし、米国の大手銀行の一部も格下げするだろうと警告したため、米国株式市場は下落に転じた。格付け会社は、このセクターでは資金調達リスクと収益性の悪化が起こりうるとし、格下げを正当化した。さらにムーディーズは、米国の主要金融機関11行のアウトルックをネガティブに変更した。最近のシリコンバレーバンクとシグネチャーバンクの破綻は、このセクターに対する市場の不透明感を強め、格付け会社の予測をより保守的にさせた。全体として、この問題は市場心理の重荷となり、ダウ、S&P500、ナスダックの米国3大株価指数はすべて下落を余儀なくされた。

Dow Jones seems to maintain a rangebound movement between the 35735 (R1) resistance line and the 34970 (S1) support line. We expect the pair to remain in a sideways motion given that the prementioned levels are respected, although short-term volatility could still generate brief deviations within the range. The RSI remains above the reading of 50 and for the time being does not imply a strong bullish sentiment that may allow the sideways motion to be maintained. Should the bulls take over, we may see the index breaking the 35735 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 36445 (R2) level. Should the bears be in charge, we may see the index breaking the 34970 (S1) support line and aim for the 34320 (S2) level. It should be noted that the market sentiment for the European banking sector also plummeted yesterday as Italy passed a once-off 40% tax on unexpected gains Italian banks have recently made. The news had a negative impact on European stock markets, adding further volatility to regional indices as the announcement seemed to take investors by surprise and practically opens the door for other major economies within the Eurozone to follow that path.