パウエルとFRBへの注目が集まる

The USD continued to weaken against its counterparts yesterday as hopes of the market for an easing of the Fed’s rate hiking path remained present creating a more optimistic market sentiment. Given the market’s focus on the Fed’s monetary policy, we highlight the speech of Fed Chairman Powel in a symposium organized by the Swedish central bank later today. Should the Fed Chairman actually maintain an intense hawkish tone, that would come at odds with market expectations and thus could provide some support for the USD and vice versa. For the record it should be noted that Fed policymakers sounded quite hawkish yesterday with San Francisco Fed President Daly seeing rates rising above 5% while Atlanta Fed President Bostic seems to agree and adds that rates should remain above 5% for a “long time” according to Bloomberg. At this point given that the market has strong expectations for a Fed slowdown and even some cuts in the last quarter of the year it may take a very aggressive hawkish tone on behalf of Powell to actually reverse the expectations of the market. As for US stock markets we note that mixed signals were sent out as the week began yesterday, yet market focus may also be turning towards the earnings season which is about to begin at the end of the week. On the international stage, the storm on Brazil’s capital by supporters of former president Bolsonaro, seems to have had little if any effect in the markets as the situation came quickly under control and the momentum seems to have passed. Moving on to the far east, China’s hasty reopening tended to create increased hopes in the market for an improved economic performance in the coming months as well as for a softening of the blow to the global economy. Overall the developments in China despite worries for a resurgence of the virus tended to improve the market sentiment as the performance of the Chinese economy seems to outweigh at the moment any worries about the virus, thus providing some support also for the Aussie. Moving north of the US border, the Canadian dollar seemed to have some slight gains against the USD reaching a one-month high, supported by the improved market sentiment yet also by a slight rise of WTI prices yesterday, while the acceleration of the building permits growth rate for November, tended to imply a wider degree of economic activity for the Canadian construction sector.

現時点では、市場はFRBが減速し、今年最後の四半期にいくらかでも利下げを行うという強い期待を持っているため、実際に市場の期待を覆すには、パウエルに代わって非常に積極的なタカ派的なトーンが必要かもしれない。米国株式市場については、昨日週明けに様々なシグナルが発信されたが、市場の関心は週明けに始まる決算シーズンに向かっているようだ。国際的には、ボルソナロ前大統領の支持者がブラジルの首都を襲撃したが、事態はすぐに収拾され、勢いはなくなったようで、市場への影響はほとんどなかったようだ。中国の急速な経済再開は、今後数カ月の経済結果の改善と世界経済への打撃の緩和に対する市場の期待を高める傾向にある。

コロナウイルスが再流行するとの懸念があるにもかかわらず、中国の動向は全体的に市場心理を改善させる傾向があり、中国経済の結果はコロナに関する懸念よりも現時点では勝っているようで、豪ドルにもいくらかの支援を提供した。カナダドルは対米ドルで1カ月ぶりの高値となり、市場心理の改善と昨日の原油価格の小幅上昇に支えられ、また11月の建築許可件数の増加率が加速したことから、カナダの建設部門の経済活動の拡大を示唆する傾向があった。

その他の注目材料

本日は、トルコの11月失業率、スウェーデンの11月GDP、ノルウェーの12月消費者物価指数の発表に注目したい。一方、原油投資家は、米国のAPI原油在庫週報の発表に関心を持つかもしれない。パウエルFRB議長のほか、ベイリーBOE総裁、シュナーベルECB理事、ティフマックレムBoC総裁のスピーチが予定されていることに注意したい。明日のアジア時間には、オーストラリアの11月消費者物価指数が発表される。