{"id":89463,"date":"2024-08-19T10:48:51","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T07:48:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=89463"},"modified":"2026-02-04T16:08:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T14:08:57","slug":"fundamentals-to-lead-in-a-quiet-monday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\/id\/fundamentals-to-lead-in-a-quiet-monday\/","title":{"rendered":"Fundamentals to lead in a quiet Monday"},"content":{"rendered":"

In an easy-going Monday, the USD seems to be licking its wounds from Friday as it weakened against its counterparts. Market expectations for the Fed to remain dovish tend to weigh on the greenback. Hence, we tend to highlight the planned speech of Fed Board Governor Waller later today and should the dovish orientation of the Fed be confirmed we may see the USD continuing to slip lower. For the week, we note the release of the Fed\u2019s July meeting minutes on Wednesday. On a fundamental level, the market tends to be focusing on the Jackson Hole meeting. Fed Chairman Powell is to deliver his keynote speech, and should he highlight a continuous easing of the bank\u2019s monetary policy without hesitation, we may see USD slipping. On a monetary level, we also note the release of RBA\u2019s last meeting minutes during tomorrow\u2019s Asian session and should the document highlight the bank\u2019s decisiveness to maintain a tight monetary policy or even tighten it further, the release could provide some support for the Aussie. Also Aussie traders are expected to keep a close eye on the release from China of PBOC\u2019s interest rate decision, given the close Sino Australian ties and a possible easing of the bank\u2019s monetary policy could weaken CNH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side AUD\/USD rose on Friday and opened with a positive gap during today\u2019s Asian session, aiming for the 0.6715 (R1) resistance line. We note the that the pair\u2019s price action has an upward trendline supporting it since the 5th<\/sup> of August and we intend to maintain a bullish outlook as long as the upward trendline remains intact. Should the bulls maintain control as expected, we may see the pair\u2019s price action breaking the 0.6715 (R1) resistance line and aiming for the 0.6870 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair reversing direction, breaking initially the prementioned upward trendline, in a first signal that the upward motion has been interrupted, and AUD\/USD may start aiming for the 0.6575 (S1) support line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also in the FX market, we note the renewed buying interest for JPY and it seems that there is a fundamental change of hearts, in the market for the Japanese currency. Please note that the market expects further tightening of BoJ\u2019s monetary policy and could provide some support for JPY if its enhanced. Also please note that on Friday Japan\u2019s inflation data for July and a possible acceleration of the rates could support JPY.      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a technical level we note that USD\/JPY fell on Friday and opened with a negative gap today breaking just below the 146.00 (R1) support line now turned to resistance. We tend to maintain a bearish outlook for the pair, given also that the RSI indicator nearing the reading of 30, implying an enhancement of the bearish sentiment among market participants. Should the bears maintain control over the pair\u2019s direction, we may see the pair aiming if not breaking the 143.40 (S1) support line. Should the bulls take over, we may see the pair reversing direction breaking the 146.00 (R1) line and aiming for the 148.90 (R2) resistance level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other highlights for the day<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During tomorrow\u2019s Asian session,  we get New Zealand\u2019s trade data for July, and on the monetary front from China PBOC\u2019s interest rate decision and from Australia, RBA\u2019s August meeting minutes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the rest of the week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday we note Sweden\u2019s Riksbank and Turkey\u2019s CBT interest rate decisions on the monetary front and note the release of Canada\u2019s and the Eurozone\u2019s July inflation metrics. On Wednesday we get Japan\u2019s trade data and Canada\u2019s producer prices, both for July and on the monetary front we note the release of the FOMC\u2019s July meeting minutes. On Thursday we get Australia\u2019s, Japan\u2019s, France\u2019s, Germany\u2019s, the Eurozone\u2019s, UK\u2019s and the US\u2019s preliminary PMI figures for August, while we also note the release of Norway\u2019s GDP rate for Q2, the US weekly initial jobless claims figure and Eurozone\u2019s preliminary consumer confidence for August. On Friday we get Japan\u2019s CPI rates for July and Canada\u2019s retail sales for June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"USD\/JPY<\/figure>\n\n\n\n